The Map and the Territory

The Map and the Territory

Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting

Book - 2013
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From the bestselling author of The Age of Turbulence and Capitalism in America

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?

To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.

The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can
know about economic forecasting and what we can't.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.

No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.

Publisher: New York : Penguin Press, 2013.
ISBN: 9781594204814
Branch Call Number: 330.97300112 Gre
Characteristics: 388 p. : ill.


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Dec 08, 2013

Although not without its moments, Mr. Greenspan has written a very odd book, strangely silent about both his failures and successes as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board. He has nothing to say about why the FOMC did not move to an inflation targeting regime in July 1996, when it came up for discussion. Nothing happened on this until January 2012 under his successor Ben Bernanke. And he has nothing to say about this or the subsequent move to forward guidance based on the unemployment rate in December 2012. He does not take any credit for making the US Fed the first central bank to monitor a chain price index with a SATIRE (SAtisfing TIme REversal formula), the personal consumption expenditure deflator, but neither does he take any blame for monitoring an index that excludes housing prices, one of the big contributors to the housing boom and bust of the nought decade. (For more on this issue, please see my paper "A Better Inflation Indicator".) Andrew Baldwin

Oct 31, 2013

In Greenspan's "author notes" there is no mention of his time at Brown Brothers Harriman (after he was fired from Chase for incompetence), or Goldman Sachs? Most curious? Also, wasn't aware he finally received his Ph.D.? For a much more enlightening - - and honest - - book, please read Prof. Ravi Batra's "Greenspan's Fraud" - - also, about that "...challenged fundamental assumptions about leading economic models..." Duuuuhhh, so "economic models" on housing, only allowing for rising prices aren't questionable? ? So, misused formulae and equations which don't apply, aren't questionable? Did Greenspan really finally get his Ph.D.?

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