"I wish I understood these matters, of chance and luck!" I said as we walked. "But to a dunce like myself, it all seems hopelessly paradoxical." Holmes smiled as he tucked the Marquis's winnings carefully into his waistcoat pocket. "You will indeed need to master the reasoning, Watson, to prosper in the new century," he said. "I could name you a dozen fallacies of probability and logic, where the outcome runs quite contrary to intuition. They form the basis of the cleverest cons and crimes and capers a detective could hope to find. In fact, I have a hunch that we will soon meet some illuminating cases."Herein are cautionary tales of greedy gamblers, reckless businessmen, and honest people misled by their common sense. From "The Unpleasantness at the Munchausen Club" to "Murder at Checkers," there has never been a more exciting way to learn about probability, statistics, game theory, and when to take a calculated risk.